Brent seen in $75–95 range in near term; structural disruption to Gulf oil assets could trigger sharp spike above USD 100 amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
Crude oil prices could surge past the $100 per barrel mark if the ongoing military escalation in West Asia leads to structural damage to oil infrastructure, according to a report by ICICI Bank.
The report noted that while Brent crude is currently expected to trade in the USD 75 per barrel to USD 95 per barrel range in the near term, upside risks remain firmly in place.
“The risks of a possible break above the USD 100 per barrel threshold remain in place if there is a structural disruption to oil infrastructure,” the report stated.
At the time of filing this report, crude oil prices were trading at USD 78.52 per barrel.
Geopolitical tensions in the region have intensified significantly after the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran following stalled negotiations over a renewed nuclear deal. The strikes reportedly targeted key military infrastructure.
In response, Iran has retaliated by targeting military bases, civilian areas, and oil infrastructure across parts of the Gulf region, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.
ICICI Bank said the conflict is unlikely to abate quickly, adding that sustained hostilities could keep energy markets volatile. Any direct hit to production facilities, pipelines, export terminals, or shipping routes could tighten global supply conditions sharply, particularly at a time when markets remain sensitive to geopolitical risks.
Analysts note that oil infrastructure in the Gulf region remains critical to global energy supply, and even temporary disruptions could significantly alter price dynamics in the international crude market.
With Brent crude already hovering near USD 80 per barrel, market participants are closely monitoring developments in West Asia for signs of further escalation that could push prices toward triple-digit territory.
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