New projections show demographic decline and a rising share of elderly residents, intensifying pressures on the labour force, pension system and public services
Germany’s population could shrink by around 5 per cent by 2050, the Financial Times reported, citing updated demographic projections that mark a significant shift from earlier expectations of stability.
The revised outlook is based on Germany’s 16th Coordinated Population Projection by the Federal Statistical Office and analysed by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. While earlier projections had assumed a broadly stable population through 2070, the new forecast expects a decline of roughly 10 per cent by 2070 compared to current levels.
The Ifo study projects that the country’s population could fall from around 83 million in 2025 to about 79 million by mid-century—a level not seen since the early 1990s with significant implications for the economy and social systems.
Ageing society and working-age decline
Official projections show that demographic ageing is progressing rapidly. Under all variants of the Federal Statistical Office’s 16th coordinated population projection, about one in four Germans will be aged 67 or older by 2035 as the large post-war baby-boomer generation enters retirement and smaller cohorts of younger people replace them.
At the same time, fertility in Germany remains low, well below the replacement level, with recent estimates putting the total fertility rate at around 1.38 children per woman. Although moderate net migration has partly offset natural population losses in recent years, long-term projections indicate that it will not fully counteract the overall decline under current demographic patterns.
Economic and social pressures
A shrinking and ageing population presents a range of economic and social pressures for Europe’s largest economy. With fewer working-age adults relative to retirees, the burden on Germany’s pension system—already a significant component of public spending—is expected to grow. While detailed long-term budget projections vary, the trend of a rising number of pensioners relative to contributors is clear in demographic models.
Labour market constraints could also intensify, as a smaller workforce may limit economic growth and productivity. Policymakers have responded with measures aimed at attracting skilled migrants and encouraging labour force participation, but demographic momentum means that structural challenges will persist into the coming decades.
Healthcare and services demand
The share of older age groups is expected to expand sharply, increasing demand for healthcare, long-term care and social services. International data suggest that the proportion of people aged 65 and older in Germany could rise to around 30 per cent of the population by mid-century, adding strain to care infrastructure and financing systems.
The demographic trajectory in Germany mirrors broader patterns seen across other advanced economies, where low fertility and longer life expectancy are reshaping population structures. Experts say a combination of policies, including family support measures, labour market reforms, and targeted immigration, will be essential to mitigate the economic impact of population decline.
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