India’s exports to China have surged in the first nine months of the current financial year, reflecting a mix of thawing bilateral ties, shifting global supply chains and New Delhi’s efforts to cushion the blow from steep US tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India’s exports to China rose 36.7 per cent year-on-year to $14.25 billion between April and December 2025. In December alone, shipments jumped 68 per cent to $2.05 billion.
The growth has been driven primarily by electronics, marine products and select petrochemical inputs, as China appears more willing to source certain items from India amid its own industrial recalibrations.
“It is a welcome growth,” Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said earlier this month, adding that the “overall recalibration of supply chains across the world is helping” India expand its export footprint, including in China.
Trump tariffs, warming ties
The export spike comes at a time when New Delhi is grappling with strained trade relations with the US. In August, President Trump imposed steep 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, including an additional 25 per cent penalty linked to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. The US remains India’s largest export destination, and the tariffs have forced exporters to look aggressively for alternative markets.
China, despite being India’s biggest source of imports and its largest trade deficit partner, has emerged as a short-term beneficiary of this diversification push.
Marine products have been a key contributor. Ministry data shows India exported $1.056 billion worth of marine products to China during the April–November period, a rise of 20.4 per cent compared with the same period last year. Electronics, too, have posted striking gains, albeit from a low base.
A December report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) highlighted that naphtha was the single largest contributor to the export surge, with shipments rising 172 per cent year-on-year to $1.4 billion during April–October, reflecting strong Chinese demand for petrochemical feedstocks.
Electronics exports showed what GTRI described as “unusually sharp spikes”. Printed circuit board exports jumped over 2,000 per cent to $418 million in the first seven months of the financial year, while mobile phone component exports rose 82 per cent to $362 million — an “unusual trend”, the report noted, given India’s heavy dependence on imports of these items from China.
Narrow gains, wider gap
Despite the impressive headline numbers, economists and trade experts have cautioned against reading too much into the surge.
“These exports are not broad-based,” Namrata Hasija, research fellow at the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, told Nikkei Asia. “They are heavily driven by specific commodities and are more reactive to immediate Chinese demand rather than a long-term, structural realignment.”
She warned that the current momentum could prove fragile if Beijing changes its policy stance. “China is OK with buying these items from India now. But what if the state policy changes and they too tighten the screws on shipments from India?” she said.
The concern is amplified by China’s already massive trade surplus with India. During April–December, China’s exports to India stood at $95.95 billion, up from $84.57 billion a year earlier. India’s imports from China continue to be dominated by electronics, machinery, chemicals and plastics.
As a result, India’s trade deficit with China widened to $81.7 billion in the nine-month period, compared with $74.15 billion a year earlier.
N.R. Bhanumurthy, director of the Madras School of Economics, told Nikkei Asia Indian exports may currently be more competitive in China because of the Trump tariffs. He added that Beijing may also be sourcing from India products it wants to gradually exit, particularly in lower-value manufacturing. “But India running an increasingly wider trade deficit with China is definitely a matter of concern,” he said, stressing the need for a more balanced trade relationship.
Diversification drive continues
The government, meanwhile, is pushing ahead with an aggressive trade diversification strategy. In recent months, India has concluded a free trade agreement with New Zealand, signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Oman, and inked a long-awaited trade deal with the UK. Talks with the European Union are at an advanced stage, while negotiations with the US continue despite the tariff tensions.
S.C. Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), told Nikkei Asia India’s export destinations now reflect a “well-diversified and resilient” footprint — a critical advantage at a time of geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, shipping disruptions and strategic realignments.
Still, analysts argue that the China story remains a double-edged sword.
“India’s recent export gains to China are narrow, volatile and heavily dependent on shifts in Chinese demand, rather than on durable market access or a diversified export base,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, told Nikkei Asia. “Without a sustained strategy to expand competitive manufacturing, reduce import dependence in key sectors, and strengthen trade monitoring, short-term export spikes will do little to alter the fundamentally imbalanced nature of India–China trade.”
For now, the numbers signal warming economic ties and tactical gains for Indian exporters. Whether this translates into a durable shift in one of Asia’s most complex trade relationships remains an open question.
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