Lower duties under the India–US trade deal could push exports past $100 billion annually and sharply widen the surplus, SBI analysis suggests.
India’s trade surplus with the United States could cross $90 billion annually within a year of the India–US trade deal coming into force, driven by a surge in exports and expanding import potential, according to a report by the State Bank of India.
The report said Indian exporters could increase shipments of the top 15 export items to the US by about $97 billion annually, and when additional product categories are included, total export potential could easily cross the $100 billion mark each year.
SBI described the reduction in tariffs as a “golden opportunity” for Indian exporters to expand market share in the US, noting that lower duties will improve price competitiveness across key sectors and accelerate trade gains.
The analysis also highlighted that the expected rise in exports, combined with a structured increase in imports, could significantly widen India’s bilateral trade surplus with the US.
The report pointed out that tariff reductions on select imports from the US would also generate savings in foreign exchange. For instance, in products such as almonds—where the US accounts for nearly 90 per cent of India’s imports—duty cuts could save an estimated $100–150 million in forex.
Overall savings in foreign exchange reserves from reduced or zero import duties on US goods are estimated at around $3 billion, with potential for further gains if import substitution increases.
The findings highlight how tariff liberalisation, combined with India’s supply-side competitiveness and sectoral export strengths, could reshape bilateral trade flows and strengthen India’s position in the US market over the coming year.
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