Oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict disrupts supply further, analysts and Trading.com CEO Peter McGuire warn, as Brent crude jumps over 25%
Global oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel if supply disruptions in West Asia deepen, the chief executive of Trading.com has warned, as markets grapple with extreme volatility triggered by the expanding regional conflict.
Peter McGuire said the rapid pace of price increases in recent days reflects deep uncertainty in global energy markets and fears that supply routes may remain disrupted.
“The most important thing at the moment is the velocity of what we have seen as far as movements to the upside,” McGuire told Al Jazeera.
Crude oil was trading between $75 and $80 per barrel as recently as Thursday, before climbing to around $90 and then surging to as high as $116 during Asian trading on Monday.
McGuire said the swings within short time frames underscore the intense instability in global markets.
“The volatility swings over a given hour are just dramatic — this will impact consumers and, in the long run, inflation if this was to last for weeks, or possibly a month or more,” he said.
Strait of Hormuz disruption rattles markets
Energy markets have been unsettled by disruptions to shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit chokepoints.
The narrow passage linking the Gulf to global markets carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Reports that shipping traffic has halted due to the conflict have raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
McGuire warned that if more Gulf countries declare force majeure and suspend oil or gas production, prices could surge sharply.
If more countries in the Gulf declare force majeure and shut down oil and gas production, “then you are going to see a spike to the upside and $140 to $150 [per barrel] is very achievable,” he said.
He added that discussions among finance ministers from the Group of Seven about a coordinated release of oil reserves through the International Energy Agency — reported by the Financial Times — could help calm markets and reduce volatility.
Gulf producers warn of wider economic shock
Concerns about a potential energy shock have also been echoed by officials in the Gulf.
Earlier, Saad al-Kaabi, the energy minister of Qatar, warned that oil prices could climb above $150 per barrel, potentially triggering a global economic slowdown.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Kaabi said the conflict in West Asia could spark a new energy crisis and push prices sharply higher.
“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher,” he said.
He also cautioned that shortages could ripple through global supply chains. “There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” Kaabi added.
The minister warned that Gulf energy exporters could even be forced to shut down production if the conflict escalates, which would tighten global supply further and push oil prices higher.
Brent crude surge highlights market fears
The warnings come as oil markets are already experiencing a sharp rally. Brent crude prices surged more than 25 per cent to $116.5 per barrel on Monday, reflecting growing fears of major supply disruptions from West Asia.
During intraday trading, prices briefly touched $119.45 per barrel, highlighting the growing volatility in global energy markets as geopolitical tensions intensify.
The region is currently witnessing a high-intensity multi-front conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, which has heightened concerns over disruptions from one of the world’s most critical oil-producing regions.
Analysts say the conflict has made crude prices increasingly bullish and could push them significantly higher if infrastructure or shipping routes in the region are affected.
Inflation and recession risks
The spike in crude prices is also raising concerns about broader economic fallout.
Higher energy prices typically feed into inflation, increase production costs for businesses and reduce consumer spending power. Economists warn that persistently high oil prices could force central banks to tighten monetary policy further, potentially slowing global economic growth.
Financial markets have already reacted to the surge, with equities across Asia falling sharply amid fears of rising inflation and economic uncertainty.
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