The United States is not currently discussing a release of crude from its emergency stockpile, even as Brent trades near $80 and analysts warn prices could surge past $100 if Gulf energy infrastructure suffers structural damage amid escalating US–Iran–Israel tensions
The United States is not currently discussing a release of crude from its emergency stockpile following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Reuters reported, indicating that policymakers believe global oil markets remain adequately supplied despite escalating tensions in West Asia.
“Oil markets remain well supplied,” the report said, even as crude prices jumped sharply after President Donald Trump authorised open-ended military action against Iran.
Brent crude surged from around $70 per barrel to nearly $80 over the weekend before easing slightly.
Brent seen in $75–95 range, but $100 risk looms
According to a recent report by ICICI Bank, Brent is expected to trade in the $75–$95 per barrel range in the near term. However, the bank warned that risks of a break above $100 per barrel remain firmly in place if the conflict leads to structural disruption of oil infrastructure.
“The risks of a possible break above the $100 per barrel threshold remain in place if there is a structural disruption to oil infrastructure,” the report said.
Geopolitical tensions intensified after the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran following stalled negotiations over a renewed nuclear deal. Iran has retaliated by targeting military bases, civilian areas and oil infrastructure across parts of the Gulf region, heightening fears of supply disruptions.
ICICI Bank noted that the conflict is unlikely to abate quickly and that sustained hostilities could keep energy markets volatile. Any direct hit to production facilities, pipelines, export terminals or shipping routes — particularly through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz — could sharply tighten global supply.
Oil infrastructure in the Gulf remains central to global energy flows. Even temporary disruptions could significantly alter price dynamics, analysts say, especially at a time when markets are already sensitive to geopolitical shocks.
World’s largest emergency stockpile
Against this backdrop, attention has turned to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), managed by the US Department of Energy. The reserve, stored in underground salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana, is the world’s largest emergency oil stockpile and currently holds more than 415 million barrels of crude.
The SPR was created in the 1970s after the Arab oil embargo to provide a buffer against severe supply disruptions. Releases are typically authorised during major geopolitical crises or natural disasters.
The largest drawdown in its history occurred in 2022, when former president Joe Biden ordered the sale of 180 million barrels over six months following Russian invasion of Ukraine, aiming to cool prices after sanctions hit Russian energy exports.
Although the Biden administration began repurchasing some crude as prices eased, replenishment has been gradual. Large-scale purchases require congressional approval, limiting the pace at which inventories can be rebuilt. President Trump has similarly faced funding constraints in efforts to refill the reserve.
Markets on edge
For now, the decision not to tap the SPR suggests US officials believe the market has not yet reached a point of material supply disruption. However, traders remain wary.
If the conflict escalates into direct, structural damage to Gulf oil assets, crude prices could spike sharply beyond $100 per barrel — a move that would have significant implications for global inflation, trade balances and monetary policy.
With Brent already hovering near $80, markets are bracing for volatility. Whether Washington ultimately turns to its strategic stockpile may depend less on current supply levels and more on how far the West Asia conflict spreads — and whether critical energy infrastructure becomes collateral damage.
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